Non GamStop Bookmakers: Now that it’s clear how double chance bets work, let’s take a look at the situations in the Premier League where they’re most useful. To this end, we’ve analyzed three possible areas of application that you should keep in mind:
- Exclude the most unlikely market
- Make underdog bets safer
What follows is a detailed explanation of these tips, which become the double chance betting strategy at non GamStop sports betting for UK players.
Exclude the most unlikely market at non GamStop bookmakers
The traditional approach to double chance betting is to additionally hedge the most likely bet. Because the odds rarely allow this for favorite bets, it’s usually the supposed underdog bet that receives additional protection—which is precisely the topic of the following tip.
Before we get into this, however, we want to encourage a rethinking of this market. What can also be achieved with double chance is the exclusion of the most unlikely market. Analyses of Premier League bets from major bookmakers have shown that, within the double chance context, the 1/2 bet—that is, excluding a draw— is by far the least frequently played. This isn’t surprising, since those who bet on either Team A or Team B generally intend to hedge against a draw by including it in their bet.
It is all the more important that you make three things clear to yourself in this context:
- Odds develop according to a principle similar to the economic principle of supply and demand; therefore, a market that is played infrequently will generally have higher odds so that it is played more frequently.
- Leaving out the draw gives you a betting market whose odds often offer particularly good value.
- Premier League statistics show that the double chance 1/2 works in three out of four cases – precisely because only one out of four games ends in a draw.
Please note that it takes time for odds to develop at non GamStop bookmakers. Therefore, if you’re looking for spots where the double chance bet becomes even more attractive by excluding the possibility of a draw, it’s best to place this bet on the day of the match itself. It’s unlikely to have reached its peak one or more days before the match begins. It’s also important that the odds are attractive enough to result in a positive expected value with an approximate probability of about 75%. A value bet is ultimately not a given here, which is also due to the fact that the payout ratio for the double chance bet is lower than in the classic 3-way system.
Incidentally, the approach of eliminating the most unlikely tip can also lead you to eliminate Tip 1 or Tip 2. Especially in matches on equal terms, where both Tip 1 and Tip 2 are above the value that favors a draw (i.e., both above ~25%), this rethinking can pave the way for entirely new strategic opportunities to find value bets with the double chance.
Make underdog bets safer at non GamStop bookmakers
As briefly mentioned above, hedging underdog bets with double chance is, in a sense, the hallmark of this betting market. It’s important that you know the basic advantages and disadvantages of betting on underdogs.
Using what you learned in the first tip, the opposite approach also works here: By doubling the odds on the underdog (i.e., including the draw), the favorite bet is effectively eliminated. However, if the favorite has been given, for example, a 50% chance of winning, this means that the doubled odds of a draw or a win for the underdog are also 50%. In this case, odds of 2.10 would already be sufficient to put us within the positive expected value, which is by no means unrealistic in such constellations.
The double chance not only makes the underdog bet a bit safer, but also – depending on your type of player – it promotes money management . Anyone who primarily bets on underdogs is much more likely to go bankrupt if they have a long losing streak than someone who primarily bets on the favorites. Both can lead to long-term profits. However, if you are the type of player who prefers to win the majority of their tickets and receive small amounts in return, rather than losing most of their tickets and using the few winning tickets to recoup all your losses in one fell swoop and turn them into a substantial win, the double chance could be a very useful addition to your portfolio, allowing you to bet profitably here and there in situations where a tip for the favorite to win does not lead to a positive expected value, or where the value is on the underdog side.
But beware: If you’ve been following our sports betting guides closely, you’ll hopefully also know that there are situations where not a single market in a multi-level betting system results in a positive expected value. So, just because Option A results in a loss doesn’t automatically mean that Option B (or C, D, or E) will be profitable, due to the bookmaker’s payout ratio, which is always below 100%!
Conclusion
In today’s Premier League sports betting guide, we’ve examined the double chance betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers from every angle. We’ve explained how the market works in general, discussed the mathematics of double chance betting, and concluded with three valuable tips for this betting market that you can use to develop your own individual double chance betting strategy.
It’s important to always have several options available in your sports betting portfolio, as this is the only way to truly find the best possible bet with the greatest possible profit while simultaneously minimizing risk. We wish you much success with your double-chance bets and look forward to welcoming you back as a reader for our next topic.
